Central Asia

[Dragon]

When Madeline Albright visited central asia recently, she promised US assistant to these state. Do you think SF will be tagged to provided FID to the former Soviet states?
If so, which group has responsibility for the "5 -stans". Tenth group had the Former Soviet Union, but they share religious and some cultutal ties with the 5th Groups Mid-East (though more with 10th's Turkey) and are in Asia--1st Group's AO. Also, do you think such an FID would cause futher tensions with Putin's Russia?

Dragon

[SOTICgrad]

5th Group has already been tasked with the Stans. They've been dealing with them for at least a year+. While FID may cause a bit of concern, I doubt that it will become trouble. Most of the stans are not overly fond of Russia and have taken to capitalism pretty well. Time will tell how well.

[Scout]

I agree. Central Asia is going to be very important in the near future: new democracies, oil, moderate Muslim states, probably alliances with Turkey (Turkey is pro-Israel, and I beleive the Stans are more pro-Jewish than the Arab states). Yeah, this si definitely an important, overlooked area, and I think the U.S. would be smart to get its foot in the door ASAP.

Scout

[Scout]

Looks like once again the U.S. is dropping the ball. This is truly unfortunate, after Albright's visit to the region, I had high hopes. Its unfortunate that we cannot employ
people who truely understand foreign policy at the highest levels, instead of poltiical "yes men".

Putin Promises Aid to Central Asia

.c The Associated Press

By ALEXANDER VERSHININ

ASHGABAT, Turkmenistan (AP) - Aiming to tighten Moscow's ties to Central Asia, Russia's president promised Friday to help Uzbekistan fight Islamic extremism and struck a deal with Turkmenistan on natural gas supplies.

President Vladimir Putin's visit to the two former Soviet republics followed a week of efforts to reassert the his authority at home by reining in Russia's freewheeling regions.

In the Uzbek capital, Tashkent, Putin said Russia would offer military aid to Uzbekistan. He signed several agreements on military cooperation with Uzbek President Islam Karimov. Neither gave details of the accords.

``A threat to Uzbekistan is a threat to Russia,'' Putin said at a news conference. ``If we don't stop aggressive moves in the south, we will face it at home.''

Karimov called Putin's visit ``reassuring for Uzbekistan's military.'' Earlier, Karimov had hinted that Uzbekistan hoped for Russian aid to modernize its air defense system.

Karimov, the former Uzbek Communist Party boss, has established a strong secular rule, cracking down on Islamic fundamentalists, human rights activists and other dissidents. He and other regional leaders have said that tough rule is necessary to prevent the spread of Islamic fundamentalism following the rise of the Taliban in nearby Afghanistan.

The threats to the region were highlighted last year by a series of bombings of government buildings in Tashkent that killed 13 people. Authorities blamed Islamic militants.

Russia has tried to maintain its presence in Central Asia, which it dominated for centuries. It has deployed about 25,000 troops and border guards to neighboring Tajikistan and offered to set up joint defenses in other countries.

Until recently, Karimov preferred to look for assistance from Turkey, the United States and Europe. The United States and other Western nations have offered some aid, but they have demanded that Uzbekistan improve its human rights record and reform its Soviet-style economy before it gets more.

Irritated by such criticism, Karimov has turned to Russia for economic and military aid. ``Today Russia is the only country that can help ensure Uzbekistan's security,'' he said Friday.

Later Friday, Putin traveled to neighboring Turkmenistan, where he and President Saparmurat Niyazov discussed regional security and economic cooperation.

Gas-rich Turkmenistan agreed to increase natural gas supplies to Russia by 350 billion cubic feet next year, followed by another 350 billion cubic feet in 2002, Putin said. But the two presidents had not yet agreed on a price - a crucial step before the deal is sealed.

Analysts said Friday's agreement could threaten a U.S.-backed plan to build a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Turkey via the Caspian Sea because so much gas would be routed to Russia instead.

Human rights activists in Russia have expressed fear that Putin, a former KGB agent, will turn to authoritarian methods to achieve his goals of restoring stability and strengthening the state. This week, he presented several draft laws to increase the Kremlin's power over the regions. The bills would revamp the upper house of parliament from a body of mostly regional governors to one made up of full-time, appointed legislators and would give Putin the right to fire lawbreaking governors, among other changes.

All three bills would need approval from parliament to take effect.

AP-NY-05-19-00 1826EDT

Copyright 2000 The Associated Press. The information contained in the AP news report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written authority of The Associated Press.

[jmbjs]

The NCA (National Command Authorities) have a tremendous interest in Central Asia. Not only for the potential gas and Uranium deals, but also there are a couple other reasons: 1). It puts the U.S. right in Russias back yard 2). As the State Departments Report on Terrorism has stated (in summary) the epicenter of terrorism has shifted from the Middle East to Central Asia.

Karimov is playing both sides off each other right now (U.S v Russia). Its on old strategy that our country knows well. If our strategic interest are compelling enough, and they do appear to be, we will outbid him...Don't count us out of the pic just because of a few public statements...Thats how you bargain...Russia is up to its A** in alligators in Chechnya, but I feel its in the U.S.'s and Russia's interest to cooperate with each other, to the point in possible joint CT operations with the Uzbecks...
Now that would send a Message to the Tangos that we ALL mean business....

The whole region is tied together. What is going on in Chechnya, is a prelude to what is going to happen in either Kyrgystan, Uzbekistan or Tajikastan (maybe all of them) by way of Afganistan

Keep an eye on the "Stans", it is the next Columbia in the making....