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knight77
10 May 2000, 13:12
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Probability of Conflict Increasing in SE Asia
9:54 am PDT, 9 May 2000

US Defense.com - The probability of armed conflict is increasing steadily and rapidly in all of southeast Asia, according to a new assessment by a respected military publication.

"In every part of East Asia there is the potential for sudden and violent military activity, whether in Korea, Taiwan, or Indonesia," says the latest edition Jane's Fighting Ships, a publication that analyzes the military capability of nations.

Most importantly, the magazine noted, "China looms over the whole area," adding, "Those who still question China's naval capability should take a hard look at the four different submarine building programs, at the massive inventory of surface-to-surface and air-to-surface missiles of all types."

Besides the fact that southeast Asian defense budgets are rising dramatically, the magazine said the region's navies are all "on the move," and it also notes that Theater Missile Defense - now under development by the United States - is a divisive issue.

One of the region's most dynamic militaries on the move is in India, where defense officials have made commitments to modernizing most weapons systems and building a "blue water" navy that will include "stealth" ships, submarines and a couple of new aircraft carriers in the next few years.

Meanwhile, Taiwan still suffers from a lack of technological assistance, as U.S. officials last month declined to sell the island democracy a host of new weapons systems, including advanced AEGIS warships listed at $3 billion apiece.

China has pledged to retake Taiwan by force, if necessary, to facilitate reunification with the mainland.

Also at issue is the region of the Spratly Islands, which consists of 100 or so islets, coral reefs, and sea mounts scattered over an area of nearly 410,000 sq km of the central South China Sea, of which about 45 are claimed and occupied by China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam.

According to the CIA Fact Book, its resources include fish, guano, undetermined oil and natural gas potential -- the latter most sought by the several nations who claim sovereignty over all or portions of the island chain.

While all of the Spratly Islands are claimed by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam, parts of them are claimed by Malaysia and the Philippines; in 1984, Brunei established an exclusive fishing zone, which encompasses Louisa Reef in the southern Spratly Islands, but has not publicly claimed the island, the CIA said.

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