ZED49
28 April 2003, 14:26
let's hope there's more to come...
from: DefenseNews
U.S. Aims To Punish France
Iraq Stance May Draw Industrial, Military Penalties
By VAGO MURADIAN
Soon after France's surprise Jan. 20 pledge to use its U.N. veto to block a U.S.-led war against Iraq, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld asked his staff for a detailed catalogue of French defense interests in the United States. Some officials said the list was intended to give Rumsfeld a better understanding of the defense relationship between the two nations. Others
said it would make a handy tool when the time came to punish Paris for its fierce global campaign to stop military action against Baghdad.
Since the list was formed, a growing number of increasingly serious steps
have been taken against France.
* A French request to extend the tour of duty of its representative at the U.S. Air Force's Global Positioning System Program Office in Los Angeles apparently has been denied.
* A joint French-British-U.S. military exercise was canceled by the
Pentagon, which cited the ongoing war and unavailability of troops.
* Earlier this month the Pentagon decided it would not allow its planes to fly at or senior officials to attend the Paris Air Show.
Some senior U.S. officials call these punitive wrist slaps the gentle
displeasure of allies. Others see a more ominous pattern forming, signs of a serious reconsideration of the relationship with America's oldest ally.
"We remain allies, but the rupture is the worst I've seen since the Vichy government was in power," said Evan Galbraith, Rumsfeld's special assistant for Europe in Brussels, referring to the Nazi puppet regime that controlled three-fifths of France.
"The consequences of this rupture are going to be horrendous to French trade and business, from tourism to investment in the country, to the receptivity in Washington to France expanding its industrial interests in the United States," Galbraith said.
"They have played with fire, and what comes next will depend very much on what France decides to with Iraq, NATO and its view of the Atlantic alliance."
Either way, there appears to be more punishment on the way. On April 23, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell told his French counterpart Dominique de Villepin - a key player in France's opposition - that Paris would pay a price for its stance.
For their part, the French are reluctant to discuss the matter. French Foreign Ministry spokesman Francois Rivasseau declined comment on potential U.S. retaliation.
Wide Range of Targets
France continued its blistering critique of the U.S.-led action throughout the three-week war, even as anti-war partners Belgium and Germany softened their stances. French officials publicly contend their opposition was grounded in the moral conviction that the United States had no legal right
to invade Iraq without explicit U.N. authorization. But privately, even some French officials concede Paris' stance was an attempt to challenge Washington's status as the world's only superpower.
France appeared to extend an olive branch April 22 by abruptly announcing it would support the immediate suspension of U.N. sanctions against Iraq, a proposal that stopped short of Washington's demands that the sanctions be scrapped entirely, allowing oil sales to underwrite Iraqi reconstruction.
While officials in President George W. Bush's administration welcomed the gesture, they rejected the proposal and said it would not avert retaliation.
U.S. officials maintain that retribution is warranted for a long list of
grievances related to Paris' attempts to rally global opposition to a military campaign the United States viewed as critical to its national security. They say France opportunistically sought to use the war to boost its global stature; misrepresented U.S. motives as driven by oil, not security; and sparked a bitter battle within NATO over whether the alliance should help Turkey if it were attacked by Iraq.
"While we think of ourselves as allies with the French, their actions have been aimed at thwarting our national security interests, and allies don't do that," one senior Pentagon official said.
"That would argue for a fundamental re-examination of the U.S. role in the world and our relationship with countries like France and Russia. This isn't about punishment, but prudent reassessment within the context of a global war against terrorism in which we rely on coalitions of coalitions, not on
old alliances."
A wide range of targets are being considered, from wine, cheese, consumer and luxury goods to defense and commercial aerospace products. Pentagon officials have hinted that French officials could be blocked from participating in U.S.-hosted defense and military conferences. Other U.S. officials have suggested they may try to isolate Paris within NATO; France
has not been a full member since it pulled out of the alliance's integrated military command in 1966.
Industry Fears U.S. Anger
Senior French officials fear the United States will vent its wrath on
France's vulnerable defense industry. With tight domestic spending, France's defense industry depends on a handful of export products for its survival: Rafale aircraft, Tiger helicopters, Aster missiles.
But France's share of the global arms market has been dropping over the past decade. Major firms like the European Aeronautic Defence and Space (EADS) Co. and Thales have pegged their hopes for growth on the U.S. market.
"If the American government stops giving us export licenses, it could be a nightmare for French weapon exports, from the Black Shaheen to satellites and commercial aircraft," one French government official said.
"Second, the export market with the most potential for us is the gulf region - between a quarter and a third of our yearly exports. That is probably going to drop, as it did after the first Gulf War. Third, you could keep EADS, Thales and others from growing in your market. So this could get really bad."
Before the 1991 war to oust Iraqi forces from Kuwait, gulf states like the United Arab Emirates and Qatar bought almost exclusively from France. Afterward, they turned to the United States, leaving France to battle with Britain for the No. 2 slot.
The gulf states were among the biggest supporters for a second war to end Saddam's reign, leading the French official to conclude that Washington could block potential French arms sales if it wanted to.
"Two years ago, if the Saudis, for example, decided to buy a French tank or fighter, it would have been possible," the French official said. "But today, can you imagine the White House letting the Saudis buy the Rafale for its Air Force? It's just not possible."
One senior State Department official said the defense relationship is an appropriate target.
"Declaring sweeping trade embargoes is illegal under [World Trade Organization] rules, so that's not an attractive lever," the official said. "But when you know that the French want to get into your defense market, and can do so only if we let them, then that is leverage."
Arms makers who are found to have sent weapons to Iraq in violation of the 1990 U.N. embargo would be in for severe retribution.
The Pentagon has teams combing Iraq for illegal arms, eager to punish suppliers, sources said. Violators would be blacklisted from doing business with DoD in what would be a veritable corporate doomsday scenario, they said. There are reports that the United States has found Western arms in Iraq, including four-year-old Milan anti-tank missiles.
One American analyst said the United States could undermine France's defense industry by withholding export licenses or pressuring potential customers.
"France depends on exports to a far greater extent than the United States, and the gulf has been at the center of that market," said Richard Aboulafia of Teal Group consultants, Fairfax, Va. "If Washington decides to exert political pressure on, say, the UAE not to buy Airbus' new A380 super-jumbo jet, things could get very interesting indeed."
Everything's Related
But Aboulafia warned the United States must move carefully.
"Everything in this industry, particularly in Europe, is interrelated,"
Aboulafia said. "So whacking the export license that keeps the Black Shaheen from being exported may sound like it's hurting France, but it'll also hurt Britain, where the missile is called the Storm Shadow."
The Pentagon's wrath might even hurt U.S. arms makers. Some say DoD might stop France from buying American precision-guided munitions or leasing U.S. airlifters.
"You have to target the people you are mad at, not make new enemies," said Joel Johnson, the vice president international at the Aerospace Industries Association, the leading U.S. aerospace trade group. "Why prevent senior U.S. defense officials from going to the Paris Air Show? That simply forces foreign delegations such as Poland and India that are interested in striking a long-term armaments relationship with the United States to deal with low-ranking officials. It's nonsense."
Punitive measures could shore up European support for France, a senior German executive said.
"Each major collaborative European project has been launched because of European frustrations with doing business with America. A heavy-handed approach could do what the French have been trying to do for years, unify Europe around major defense programs," the German executive said. "There is
no sense making a bad situation worse. Maybe France didn't have the sense to stop when it should have, but the U.S. should."
The State Department official said France has already paid a dear price.
"They tried to use diplomacy to block a war and failed miserably. They tried to establish a Europe distinct from and in opposition to U.S. foreign policy and failed," the official said. "They weakened the U.N. and forced a division not only in NATO, but within Europe itself, where frustrations at France's bullying over the years boiled over."
The lesson, the official said, is that "if you're going to square off
against the biggest guy on the block, a guy who is committed to solving global threats that others can't or won't, you'd better win, and France didn't."
Pierre Tran contributed to this report from Paris.
from: DefenseNews
U.S. Aims To Punish France
Iraq Stance May Draw Industrial, Military Penalties
By VAGO MURADIAN
Soon after France's surprise Jan. 20 pledge to use its U.N. veto to block a U.S.-led war against Iraq, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld asked his staff for a detailed catalogue of French defense interests in the United States. Some officials said the list was intended to give Rumsfeld a better understanding of the defense relationship between the two nations. Others
said it would make a handy tool when the time came to punish Paris for its fierce global campaign to stop military action against Baghdad.
Since the list was formed, a growing number of increasingly serious steps
have been taken against France.
* A French request to extend the tour of duty of its representative at the U.S. Air Force's Global Positioning System Program Office in Los Angeles apparently has been denied.
* A joint French-British-U.S. military exercise was canceled by the
Pentagon, which cited the ongoing war and unavailability of troops.
* Earlier this month the Pentagon decided it would not allow its planes to fly at or senior officials to attend the Paris Air Show.
Some senior U.S. officials call these punitive wrist slaps the gentle
displeasure of allies. Others see a more ominous pattern forming, signs of a serious reconsideration of the relationship with America's oldest ally.
"We remain allies, but the rupture is the worst I've seen since the Vichy government was in power," said Evan Galbraith, Rumsfeld's special assistant for Europe in Brussels, referring to the Nazi puppet regime that controlled three-fifths of France.
"The consequences of this rupture are going to be horrendous to French trade and business, from tourism to investment in the country, to the receptivity in Washington to France expanding its industrial interests in the United States," Galbraith said.
"They have played with fire, and what comes next will depend very much on what France decides to with Iraq, NATO and its view of the Atlantic alliance."
Either way, there appears to be more punishment on the way. On April 23, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell told his French counterpart Dominique de Villepin - a key player in France's opposition - that Paris would pay a price for its stance.
For their part, the French are reluctant to discuss the matter. French Foreign Ministry spokesman Francois Rivasseau declined comment on potential U.S. retaliation.
Wide Range of Targets
France continued its blistering critique of the U.S.-led action throughout the three-week war, even as anti-war partners Belgium and Germany softened their stances. French officials publicly contend their opposition was grounded in the moral conviction that the United States had no legal right
to invade Iraq without explicit U.N. authorization. But privately, even some French officials concede Paris' stance was an attempt to challenge Washington's status as the world's only superpower.
France appeared to extend an olive branch April 22 by abruptly announcing it would support the immediate suspension of U.N. sanctions against Iraq, a proposal that stopped short of Washington's demands that the sanctions be scrapped entirely, allowing oil sales to underwrite Iraqi reconstruction.
While officials in President George W. Bush's administration welcomed the gesture, they rejected the proposal and said it would not avert retaliation.
U.S. officials maintain that retribution is warranted for a long list of
grievances related to Paris' attempts to rally global opposition to a military campaign the United States viewed as critical to its national security. They say France opportunistically sought to use the war to boost its global stature; misrepresented U.S. motives as driven by oil, not security; and sparked a bitter battle within NATO over whether the alliance should help Turkey if it were attacked by Iraq.
"While we think of ourselves as allies with the French, their actions have been aimed at thwarting our national security interests, and allies don't do that," one senior Pentagon official said.
"That would argue for a fundamental re-examination of the U.S. role in the world and our relationship with countries like France and Russia. This isn't about punishment, but prudent reassessment within the context of a global war against terrorism in which we rely on coalitions of coalitions, not on
old alliances."
A wide range of targets are being considered, from wine, cheese, consumer and luxury goods to defense and commercial aerospace products. Pentagon officials have hinted that French officials could be blocked from participating in U.S.-hosted defense and military conferences. Other U.S. officials have suggested they may try to isolate Paris within NATO; France
has not been a full member since it pulled out of the alliance's integrated military command in 1966.
Industry Fears U.S. Anger
Senior French officials fear the United States will vent its wrath on
France's vulnerable defense industry. With tight domestic spending, France's defense industry depends on a handful of export products for its survival: Rafale aircraft, Tiger helicopters, Aster missiles.
But France's share of the global arms market has been dropping over the past decade. Major firms like the European Aeronautic Defence and Space (EADS) Co. and Thales have pegged their hopes for growth on the U.S. market.
"If the American government stops giving us export licenses, it could be a nightmare for French weapon exports, from the Black Shaheen to satellites and commercial aircraft," one French government official said.
"Second, the export market with the most potential for us is the gulf region - between a quarter and a third of our yearly exports. That is probably going to drop, as it did after the first Gulf War. Third, you could keep EADS, Thales and others from growing in your market. So this could get really bad."
Before the 1991 war to oust Iraqi forces from Kuwait, gulf states like the United Arab Emirates and Qatar bought almost exclusively from France. Afterward, they turned to the United States, leaving France to battle with Britain for the No. 2 slot.
The gulf states were among the biggest supporters for a second war to end Saddam's reign, leading the French official to conclude that Washington could block potential French arms sales if it wanted to.
"Two years ago, if the Saudis, for example, decided to buy a French tank or fighter, it would have been possible," the French official said. "But today, can you imagine the White House letting the Saudis buy the Rafale for its Air Force? It's just not possible."
One senior State Department official said the defense relationship is an appropriate target.
"Declaring sweeping trade embargoes is illegal under [World Trade Organization] rules, so that's not an attractive lever," the official said. "But when you know that the French want to get into your defense market, and can do so only if we let them, then that is leverage."
Arms makers who are found to have sent weapons to Iraq in violation of the 1990 U.N. embargo would be in for severe retribution.
The Pentagon has teams combing Iraq for illegal arms, eager to punish suppliers, sources said. Violators would be blacklisted from doing business with DoD in what would be a veritable corporate doomsday scenario, they said. There are reports that the United States has found Western arms in Iraq, including four-year-old Milan anti-tank missiles.
One American analyst said the United States could undermine France's defense industry by withholding export licenses or pressuring potential customers.
"France depends on exports to a far greater extent than the United States, and the gulf has been at the center of that market," said Richard Aboulafia of Teal Group consultants, Fairfax, Va. "If Washington decides to exert political pressure on, say, the UAE not to buy Airbus' new A380 super-jumbo jet, things could get very interesting indeed."
Everything's Related
But Aboulafia warned the United States must move carefully.
"Everything in this industry, particularly in Europe, is interrelated,"
Aboulafia said. "So whacking the export license that keeps the Black Shaheen from being exported may sound like it's hurting France, but it'll also hurt Britain, where the missile is called the Storm Shadow."
The Pentagon's wrath might even hurt U.S. arms makers. Some say DoD might stop France from buying American precision-guided munitions or leasing U.S. airlifters.
"You have to target the people you are mad at, not make new enemies," said Joel Johnson, the vice president international at the Aerospace Industries Association, the leading U.S. aerospace trade group. "Why prevent senior U.S. defense officials from going to the Paris Air Show? That simply forces foreign delegations such as Poland and India that are interested in striking a long-term armaments relationship with the United States to deal with low-ranking officials. It's nonsense."
Punitive measures could shore up European support for France, a senior German executive said.
"Each major collaborative European project has been launched because of European frustrations with doing business with America. A heavy-handed approach could do what the French have been trying to do for years, unify Europe around major defense programs," the German executive said. "There is
no sense making a bad situation worse. Maybe France didn't have the sense to stop when it should have, but the U.S. should."
The State Department official said France has already paid a dear price.
"They tried to use diplomacy to block a war and failed miserably. They tried to establish a Europe distinct from and in opposition to U.S. foreign policy and failed," the official said. "They weakened the U.N. and forced a division not only in NATO, but within Europe itself, where frustrations at France's bullying over the years boiled over."
The lesson, the official said, is that "if you're going to square off
against the biggest guy on the block, a guy who is committed to solving global threats that others can't or won't, you'd better win, and France didn't."
Pierre Tran contributed to this report from Paris.