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-   -   Recession coming? (http://www.socnet.com/showthread.php?t=126175)

peter28 16 January 2016 18:26

Recession coming?
 
Toward the end of '15 and now into '16 nearly every market (US stocks, emerging markets, China's economy and stock markets, oil and other commodities, U.S. high yield, etc) has taken a dump. The US Federal Reserve felt comfortable raising the interest rate based on positive economic indicators (unemployment, inflation, etc), but I'm not seeing anything positive in the new year.

While there are connections and varying fallout from all of those markets that can be debated forever, my one take-away is that it doesn't look good and I anticipate a recession. It's been a long and slow rise since the '08 disaster and it seems like many analysts aren't optimistic about what the near to mid term may hold.

Coincidentally, in November I started a process of closing out my USAA managed money and transferring it into Vanguard (Vanguard charges less and USAA managed my money like a gov't bureaucracy - lot's of movement with no progress). However, I was fortunate enough to have my money out of the market and in the transfer process when US stock markets started to shit the bed. I requested Vanguard to sit tight and not put it in the market until we settle on a plan. I'm still out of the market and anticipate getting back in when I feel comfortable - not sure when that will be.

Does anyone else have the same sentiment or taking similar/different precautions?

Gsniper 16 January 2016 18:29

I'm uneasy also. I have a large chunk of my savings in 401's and Roth/Sep IRA's. I'm hedging with some silver, but I'm behind the power curve.

EchoFiveMike 16 January 2016 18:36

I don't think we've ever been out of the recession, it was simply manipulation of the numbers and scheming.

http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc...20sector_0.png

compared to debt:

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media...deral-debt.png

All that debt for what, a circa 1% uptick in manufacturing. Nope, it was flim-flamery. S/F....Ken M

MakoZeroSix 16 January 2016 18:38

The stock market is certainly due to crash again. That's what markets do. '87, '99, '08, '16? Yup, every ten years give or take, pretty much like clockwork. What goes up must come down. And then go back up again. Recession follows. Then gets better.

I've transferred my 401K funds into stable bonds. After the market crashes, they go back into agressive growth funds. Just like last time. Plus I'll buy alot of the stocks that go down real low, then sell them a couple of years later when the market recovers. Not really rocket science.

DirtyDog0311 16 January 2016 18:48

E5M is correct.

We've been in a recession since the crash of '07. The "real" economy never really got out of it. The numbers have been propped up by shady accounting practices, straight up money printing, and govt complicity (and some outright lying).

The hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars that were literally GIVEN to the banks to keep them from going under were used by the big banks to buy up all the smaller banks. Now we have, I think, only 6 banks that control it all in America.

What's worse --- the repeal of Glass-Stegall means that banks can now use your money in your checking/savings accounts as collateral in their derivative scheming.

Pay attention to what happened in Cyprus. And Greece. It'll be the beta test to what happens when these chucklefucks screw it all up again.

btq96r 16 January 2016 18:52

I use Vanguard mutual funds, so I'm spread out fairly well. I'm feeling the pain all over, but nothing should (never saying never) hit zero. What's sucks for me is the decent dividends I took home for 2015 were reinvested and were pretty much wiped out in the last two weeks. I have faith it'll come back to where it was sooner or later.

peter28 16 January 2016 18:52

EFM: the first chart just means that our economy has largely shifted from manufacturing to services. While we're manufacturing less on a relative basis, we're contributing to GDP through services like consulting, financial services, tech, etc.

Buy low/sell high - that's definitely not science. Timing the market and knowing where we are in the market is a different story. Take the energy market for example, if you bought any major downstream oil company around Thanksgiving thinking that oil couldn't go lower than $45, then you'd be SOL.

I agree though, the bonds of some major companies like Verizon, Apple, etc aren't going anywhere.

EchoFiveMike 16 January 2016 18:53

You mean the Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking Act:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riegle...cy_Act_of_1994

This is what facilitated the consolidation of baking into huge monstrosities(too big to fail). And the excuse was the CRA...gotta help those "poor people, especially minorities."

As per SOP, they use the reliable scheme of "helping people" to disguise the knife in the back screwjob. S/F....Ken M

btq96r 16 January 2016 18:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by DirtyDog0311 (Post 1058536276)
E5M is correct.

We've been in a recession since the crash of '07. The "real" economy never really got out of it. The numbers have been propped up by shady accounting practices, straight up money printing, and govt complicity (and some outright lying).

The hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars that were literally GIVEN to the banks to keep them from going under were used by the big banks to buy up all the smaller banks. Now we have, I think, only 6 banks that control it all in America.

What's worse --- the repeal of Glass-Stegall means that banks can now use your money in your checking/savings accounts as collateral in their derivative scheming.

Pay attention to what happened in Cyprus. And Greece. It'll be the beta test to what happens when these chucklefucks screw it all up again.

So, you'd support this guy in helping fix the problems...:biggrin:
https://berniesanders.com/issues/reforming-wall-street/

EchoFiveMike 16 January 2016 18:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by peter28 (Post 1058536278)
EFM: the first chart just means that our economy has largely shifted from manufacturing to services. While we're manufacturing less on a relative basis, we're contributing to GDP through services like consulting, financial services, tech, etc.

Yes, easily manipulated, easily stolen, easily replaced. S/F...Ken M

Chimo 16 January 2016 18:55

A friend of mine took out a 50% loan against his 401k. He is paying it back with interest. He is gauenteed to make back at least his interest on that half. The other half is shifted to "safer funds" and he has the cash put away just in case. Not sure if it is a great idea but it sounds good in theory.

DirtyDog0311 16 January 2016 19:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by btq96r (Post 1058536280)
So, you'd support this guy in helping fix the problems...:biggrin:
https://berniesanders.com/issues/reforming-wall-street/

Oh Jesus Chri........NO. :biggrin:

People often fall under the assumption that because two people can identify a problem ---- that one person's solution is automatically the others' too. (I know you were joking)

Bernie sees a problem with Wall Street and his solution is to institute communism (i.e. govt control over all economic activity). Which is what causes the problem in the first place. It's like saying "oh you drank too much alcohol. You better drink this handle of Jack to sober up".

kosty 16 January 2016 19:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gsniper (Post 1058536271)
I'm uneasy also. I have a large chunk of my savings in 401's and Roth/Sep IRA's. I'm hedging with some silver, but I'm behind the power curve.

If you think the market is taking a dump, look over your portfolio options and find a "Low/Fixed Return" fund. The fixed return type of funds have a much lower return when the market goes up, and a lower increase when the market rises. But this is where you move your funds if the market is going into a downturn.

You might have charges for moving money from one fund to another, and you might have a limit on how often you can transfer the funds. It is easy to lose money this way, but it's even easier to lose money by thinking you have nowhere to go in a downturn.

DirtyDog0311 16 January 2016 19:14

I moved all of my funds from a 401(k) to a self-directed account (with myself as the trustee) I set up at the local bank back in March of this year. I haven't lost a single dime from all this nonsense.

You won't MAKE any money while it's parked in this account, but it is a safe haven from losing money when the stock market takes a huge dump. Plus, I'm able to legally purchase physical precious metals from the money in that account --- AND KEEP THEM IN MY POSSESSION. No 'third party custodian' requirement.

Gsniper 16 January 2016 19:18

My other hedge is being debt free, to include my house/land. I may take that advise and go to fixed return items or tangibles such as silver. No matter what happens I have my home, so that's something.

kosty 16 January 2016 19:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by DirtyDog0311 (Post 1058536290)
I moved all of my funds from a 401(k) to a self-directed account (with myself as the trustee) I set up at the local bank back in March of this year. I haven't lost a single dime from all this nonsense.

You won't MAKE any money while it's parked in this account, but it is a safe haven from losing money when the stock market takes a huge dump. Plus, I'm able to legally purchase physical precious metals from the money in that account --- AND KEEP THEM IN MY POSSESSION. No 'third party custodian' requirement.

After the 2008 downturn, I moved my funds to TDAmeritrade. It's still in a tax deferred account, but I do the trading. To figure out how to do it with a smidge of intelligence, I took advantage of the TDAmeritrade sponsored education at Think or Swim. Today I'm doing options trading to manage my risk.

Hot Mess 16 January 2016 21:48

Looks like it's time for another world war...

JoeArmyNCO 17 January 2016 08:33

Investing in ammunition here in Tennessee.

GPC 17 January 2016 09:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeArmyNCO (Post 1058536394)
Investing in ammunition here in Tennessee.

Same here and freeze dried food.

leopardprey 17 January 2016 10:28

^ I just have the list of addresses for all the Mormons in my area.

:biggrin:


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