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  #1  
Old 5 February 2018, 21:37
Rockville Rockville is offline
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NPS thesis on scout sniper

Was Captain Gregory R. Jaunal, (USMC) a sniper?

he wrote this thesis

LEVERAGING NON-COGNITIVE TESTING TO PREDICT SUCCESS AT
USMC SCOUT SNIPER COURSE

https://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/ha...pdf?sequence=1

Historically, about 55 percent of those enrolled at the Marine Corps Scout Sniper Course fail. Each failure costs the Marine Corps time and money. Additionally, each drop from the course requires screening and preparing another Marine to attend a future course. We develop statistical models to determine the
most significant characteristics contributing to success at scout sniper school. We use data from 2012 through 2016 containing more than 700 Marines from every infantry military occupational specialty (MOS) to build multivariate probit models to determine which observable traits best predict success. In addition, we analyze 48 students’ responses to the Grit Scale and a Big Five personality questionnaire to identify the most influential noncognitive traits that lead to successfully completing the course. We discover that significant relationships exist between military performance and graduation. Statistically significant predictor variables include rifle score, average proficiency and conduct marks, physical fitness score, the count of pull-ups on the USMC Initial Strength Test, and the Armed Services
Vocational Battery subtests scores for Auto Shop and General Science. We also find the noncognitive traits of “grit,” extroversion, conscientiousness, and neuroticism display statistical significance. We recommend the Marine Corps develop and standardize noncognitive measures to facilitate job matching, such as in the preselection of the most suitable scout sniper candidates.
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Old 5 February 2018, 22:28
DB8541 DB8541 is offline
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Cant answer about him being a Scout Sniper but it was an interesting read. I do not think the M40A7 has been fielded yet. I thought we were still on the A6 which was the first skeleton folding stock rifle that replaced the A5 Mcmillan traditional fiberglass rifle stock.
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Old 5 February 2018, 23:36
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Personnel attending NPS have to come up with a thesis that has not been done before, which can be a challenge. They don't necessarily have to be "qualified" in a skill set they research.
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Old 6 February 2018, 04:41
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I'm not reading an 82 page document. But.......

Quote:
Statistically significant predictor variables include rifle score, average proficiency and conduct marks, physical fitness score, the count of pull-ups on the USMC Initial Strength Test, and the Armed Services
You don't have to have a PHD to figure that out. Those some are indicators of a good Marine/soldier. Put good candidates in on the front end, you get good graduation results on the back end. Put a bunch of average grunts and Gumps in, you get a different % on the back.
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Old 6 February 2018, 14:22
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Personnel attending NPS have to come up with a thesis that has not been done before, which can be a challenge. They don't necessarily have to be "qualified" in a skill set they research.
As an NPS graduate, I can absolutely confirm your comment. In retrospect, I learned to see it as a learning exercise. Some of the courses I took helped me to better understand, or think critically about the subject I was researching - which I had absolutely no personal experience in (operational testing). What I learned through the thesis ended up being of greater value to myself and very, very quickly, the military than a collection of classes that I completed at the NPS.

I felt fortunate to have latched onto a research topic that stimulated my interest, and had some actual value. I did not have to fill pages and pages with graphs, graphics and statistical calculations just to get a decent page count. Having spent some time perusing through the thesis cage at the NPS library looking for ideas, saw lots and lots of papers that my cynical self saw very little value in. But it had to be done, or you didn't graduate. I felt more elated when my advisor signed off on my thesis than I did when some important person who I immediately forgot handed me my diploma.

I look at my thesis now, and it seems to be rather amateurish. But I was, on that topic, at that time. The exercise served its purpose anyways.
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Old 6 February 2018, 14:34
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Originally Posted by Gsniper View Post
I'm not reading an 82 page document. But.......



You don't have to have a PHD to figure that out. Those some are indicators of a good Marine/soldier. Put good candidates in on the front end, you get good graduation results on the back end. Put a bunch of average grunts and Gumps in, you get a different % on the back.

Your comment puts into perspective what every SS/Recon/LRRP platoon sgt weighs when making selections to the platoon. The event scores, IE Rifle and PT are the requirement to try out and the "Grit" factor is what you see from the selectee when they are put into stressful, physical demanding and seemingly impossible situations. How they react and solve the problem is much more important then how fast they can run in my opinion.

When I was running platoon selections I always said I do not need a pack mule, big dumb animal who can carry a truck on their back, I need thinkers and problem solvers. If an individuals brain power cant help the teams mission then they are not needed out there on the mission. Everyones fitness and determination to not quit when it gets tough should be a given but until you get them exhausted, cold/hot and miserable you cannot tell who will quit.

The Thesis just churches up what every SS platoon Sgt and school house instructors with experience already know convincing higher of the same is usually a struggle. This Thesis could put it on their level to understand from a well researched opinion.

Last edited by DB8541; 6 February 2018 at 14:41.
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Old 6 February 2018, 15:20
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As Gooch used to tell me, "It's not rocket surgery".

I don't know about the Corps, but the Army requires a 110 GT score to weed out the Gumps(I think Sharky got the Louisana waiiver). Being smart does not guarantee success, but being stupid practically guarantees failure.
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Old 6 February 2018, 15:26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DB8541 View Post
Your comment puts into perspective what every SS/Recon/LRRP platoon sgt weighs when making selections to the platoon. The event scores, IE Rifle and PT are the requirement to try out and the "Grit" factor is what you see from the selectee when they are put into stressful, physical demanding and seemingly impossible situations. How they react and solve the problem is much more important then how fast they can run in my opinion.

When I was running platoon selections I always said I do not need a pack mule, big dumb animal who can carry a truck on their back, I need thinkers and problem solvers. If an individuals brain power cant help the teams mission then they are not needed out there on the mission. Everyones fitness and determination to not quit when it gets tough should be a given but until you get them exhausted, cold/hot and miserable you cannot tell who will quit.

The Thesis just churches up what every SS platoon Sgt and school house instructors with experience already know convincing higher of the same is usually a struggle. This Thesis could put it on their level to understand from a well researched opinion.
Great post. A smart dude who is also a pack mule is what we looked for.
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  #9  
Old 6 February 2018, 15:33
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Also knows basic math, algebra and geometry. And the sneaky/devious factor. Now I'm starting to question how I ever got in the game.
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Old 6 February 2018, 15:35
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Sneaky/Devious factor def a plus!
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Old 12 February 2018, 11:09
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We have a good handle on making smart people strong; that's pretty core institutional knowledge. It's making strong people smart which is the problem. Another core component is a responsible and moral person. We all know smart and yet devious malingerers. Lazy but honest is workable, smart lazy fuckers come up with some of the best ideas; it's the lying and deception that kills within a small team. Immoral liars will have you on the international news, as a sniper you truly get to play God and if that experience doesn't make you pause and think some deep thoughts, you're probably not smart enough to appreciate the responsibility and de facto authority you have. S/F.....Ken M
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Old 12 February 2018, 15:26
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Originally Posted by Gsniper View Post
Also knows basic math, algebra and geometry. And the sneaky/devious factor. Now I'm starting to question how I ever got in the game.

I was a terrible student in High school especially when it came to math. I used to say to myself what do I need to know math for?, I am going into the Marine Corps. Then when I made it to SS school I said to myself "I really should have paid attention more in school". Needless to say I was a little behind the power curve in the math arena and doing every equation long hand during school was a challenge to say the least. Once I had a purpose and reason to learn it, it made sense to me more out of necessity. I was in a school where if you played football you passed classes which didn't do me any favors in the long run.

To Gumby2/6, Pack mules with smarts who would not quit anything were the unicorns we all searched for
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Old 12 February 2018, 15:29
DB8541 DB8541 is offline
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Originally Posted by EchoFiveMike View Post
We have a good handle on making smart people strong; that's pretty core institutional knowledge. It's making strong people smart which is the problem. Another core component is a responsible and moral person. We all know smart and yet devious malingerers. Lazy but honest is workable, smart lazy fuckers come up with some of the best ideas; it's the lying and deception that kills within a small team. Immoral liars will have you on the international news, as a sniper you truly get to play God and if that experience doesn't make you pause and think some deep thoughts, you're probably not smart enough to appreciate the responsibility and de facto authority you have. S/F.....Ken M

Summed up by the quote "The Choice is mine", is a powerful and drastically impacting responsibility.
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Old 12 February 2018, 16:15
Gsniper Gsniper is offline
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doing every equation long hand
I'm guessing they still do this even in the day of the laser range finder and smart phone to do all your math for you. I was a student pre-mildot master and solar LCD calculators were just starting to hit the market. All range E and slope dope done long hand.

Quote:
f you played football you passed classes
Even the pine-riders?
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Old 12 February 2018, 17:57
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Originally Posted by DB8541 View Post

To Gumby2/6, Pack mules with smarts who would not quit anything were the unicorns we all searched for
2/6 STA, late 90s were full of "unicorns"
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Old 12 February 2018, 21:23
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Even the pine-riders?
Not so much, I was no super star but I played enough to be needed LOL.
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Old 13 February 2018, 10:44
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And the sneaky/devious factor.


As you well know, that was the area that I excelled in (and still do).
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Old 13 February 2018, 10:45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gsniper View Post
As Gooch used to tell me, "It's not rocket surgery".

I don't know about the Corps, but the Army requires a 110 GT score to weed out the Gumps(I think Sharky got the Louisana waiiver). Being smart does not guarantee success, but being stupid practically guarantees failure.


I had a 118 GT, fucker....LOL I'm just an Underachiever.
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When I hit the ground I was on the run
I had one glad hand and the other behind
You can have yours, just give me mine
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-ZZ Top
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Old 13 February 2018, 16:32
DB8541 DB8541 is offline
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Sneaky/Devious factor def a plus!

"Do what ever it takes, just don't Ever get caught or compromised" "Mission has priority and compromise is not an option" were my favorite sayings as a PltSgt.

On one of my deployments my senior Sgt in the platoon said in a joking way "We make you proud, don't we SSgt?" I said you all make me just as nervous as you make me proud and that is a good thing LOL. SB saw the guys from that platoon when we went through the SOTG R&S course in 2000. I always had to keep my eye on them but with a smile and a smirk on my face and riding the line of being professional but letting them solve the problem in creative ways

Last edited by DB8541; 13 February 2018 at 16:42.
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Old 16 February 2018, 15:44
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Once upon a time in a land called Quantico at the SSIS our attrition rate was around 60%. HQMC wanted an investigation as there was a lot of travel and perdiem being wasted to get guys to the school to just have them fail.

We immediately pointed out that the Divisions weren't sending us guys that met the prerequisites. They were failing the entry landnav, weren't scoring 1st class on the entry PFT, low GT scores etc.

We also looked at the POI. Around this time we were conducting a total rewrite of the course material to meet ISD standards. Up to this point the school was really a "course" that MTU ran. In order to put it in the formal school catalogue we had to develop tasks, conditions and standards for everything. Up to this point it was basically we taught whatever Gy Hathcock and Capt Cuddy had determined to be important and the standards were whatever the Canadians and the Brit Marines used.

One example was that we switched from KD practice on FBI silhouettes to NRA repair centers which served to tighten up groups and take the slop out of the students brains. Instead of a huge silhouette they were aiming for a roughly MOA "X" ring. (Note this is also about the time that the ammo went to shit with Special Ball. That is another story for another day my children)

But the biggest change was in our mindset as instructors. At this time we were all FMF snipers and recon dudes. All of the Hathcock era team shooters were gone and were replaced by young, hard dick, FMF NCOs. We were pretty much assholes. We took a hard look at being mentors and teachers and reeled in the "I need to make this harder on these guys than I had it" mentality.

Not only did the graduation rate improve but we started putting out some steely eyed killers that I till think were among the best I ever worked with.
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