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  #41  
Old 17 January 2016, 22:44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DirtyDog0311 View Post
On a side note. I'm about 3/4 of the way through "The Big Short".


EVERYONE needs to watch it. Because it's happening again.
Yep, I came out of the theatre with a case of the ass after watching that film. Now I have to read the book. Bespoke Tranche Opportunities, what a crock of dogshit.
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  #42  
Old 17 January 2016, 23:46
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The recession seems to already be here. Many say this is another 1937
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  #43  
Old 18 January 2016, 00:01
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Originally Posted by edd1e22 View Post
The recession seems to already be here. Many say this is another 1937
How so?
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  #44  
Old 18 January 2016, 00:19
edd1e22 edd1e22 is offline
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We're seeing fractures in the credit market. Last go around, it was debt defaults from resi mtg. Now the hy debt mkt is going south. I work for a hnw individual and get to hear private opinions of some people who would be considered in the know and it's pretty scary what I'm hearing.
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  #45  
Old 18 January 2016, 00:22
edd1e22 edd1e22 is offline
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https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...H7EtjuU4ha52bw

This is a private speech made by Stanley Druckenmiller and offers interesting insight into his views on a macro level.
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  #46  
Old 18 January 2016, 00:41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeArmyNCO View Post
Ammo will be as good as cash if the shit hits the fan. Maybe better.
Amen, Bullets, food and seeds are always a safe bet. You can't Eat, Plant or shoot a gold coin when times are really tough. Great for a recovery but pretty useless in a SHTF period of 6 months or longer.

So have plenty of both for the long run. When you have plenty of tangible resources to trade you can probably get a great deal on gold coins when someone hasn't eaten in a week or so. Lots of fake gold out there so know what you are doing when excepting it for your tangible resources.

It is the same by low sell high concept just with food for gold
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  #47  
Old 18 January 2016, 01:53
Colonel Flagg Colonel Flagg is offline
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Originally Posted by leopardprey View Post
How so?
I'll take a stab at it.

The US economy never fully recovered from the Depression until it went to and thru a full noise War Economy transformation and the rest of the world's infrastructure and manufacturing capacity was destroyed.

The 30's was a lost decade of failing to effectively recover from the excesses of the roaring 20's.

Despite FDR's implementation of Social Security and sovereign works (and make work) projects likes CCC, TVA, and CWA it still wasn't enough to bring the country out of a stall controlled spin.

The spin was controlled, but it took WWII to prevent from crashing and eventually regaining altitude.

-----

It can be dangerous using simplistic comparisons and analogies, although I admittedly use them all the time.

But it's worth remembering that despite some scary similarities(such as the inability or lack of will to recover from the US economic spin or transform the US economy; and the rise of a mercantile fascist peer in China to replace Germany/Japan as potential opposition) there's far more differences to make such simple comparisons a potential roadblock to understanding where we are and where we're going.

Having said that, it certainly "feels" like the 1930's mixed with some Bladerunner.

-----

Whereas the last global financial crisis was born in the US, I reckon the next one will be Chinese with their epic malinvestment in insane levels of empty/idle capacity and bad party loans at the local/regional level.

The US will survive it, in fact a lot around the world are betting the US is the best place to park/protect their capital shifting to US Dollars/assets.

Whatever happens will not be the end of the world, just as it wasn't when it bottomed in early 2009.

"Stuff" people need doesn't go to zero value.

If it gets cheap enough buy it. If it gets even cheaper, buy some more.
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  #48  
Old 18 January 2016, 06:10
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You can't Eat, Plant or shoot a gold coin when times are really tough
Absolutely. My "prepping" is already done. I'm doing silver for asset protection purposes only.
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  #49  
Old 18 January 2016, 06:18
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Originally Posted by Colonel Flagg View Post
in fact a lot around the world are betting the US is the best place to park/protect their capital shifting to US Dollars/assets.
Are you saying that you don't see real context around "de-dollarization" efforts then?
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  #50  
Old 18 January 2016, 07:17
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Are you saying that you don't see real context around "de-dollarization" efforts then?
I think long term(multi decade) the US Dollar is slowly losing its unipolar status as global reserve currency.

It will be complemented, basketed, supplanted over time, unless:

The US reverses economic course dramatically

And/or

The Rest of World industrial(and increasingly complex Intellectual Property) production capacity is kneecapped, a la WWII

Providing the US with Bretton Woods 2.0 dominance.

I don't see that happening as most likely courses of action.

-----

But in the short to medium term(up to several years) I think it is likely that MUCH of the world(including Chinese grey money) views the US as the best safe haven option(market security/stability/scale).

Places like Canada, Australia, and NZ are also safe options used, but they can only absorb so much before going retard.

The part of the world I think that is turning away from US Dollar and market safety is GCC bolt hole money.

All that locked up Shah era Iranian money from the 70's could someday be locked up GCC money if they go under and/or political winds and allies of convenience shift.

-----

But in short, I reckon the US will see net capital inflows for the troubling period ahead as one of the few(mostly 5 eyes) least bad options amongst many bad options.

Longer term, multi decade time horizon, and from a US investment perspective, it would make sense to place some strong investment focus on US companies with strong long term defensible positions deriving significant % of income from OCONUS.

Just my 0.02c

As always, do your own homework, don't believe a word I've said as it's probably worth less than what you paid to read it.
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  #51  
Old 18 January 2016, 07:35
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Always interesting economic info here. They've been painting this picture for the past several years.

hxxp://www.zerohedge.com/
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  #52  
Old 18 January 2016, 08:22
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/o...s-oil-war.html

This, combined with the exposure US banks have to the energy sector.

We'll see tomorrow...
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  #53  
Old 18 January 2016, 09:33
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It's really a shame that the US hasn't invested in the infrastructure to store more oil in strategic reserves. Filling up the tanks now would be ideal.
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  #54  
Old 18 January 2016, 10:14
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My former company switched from Vanguard to TIAA-CREF. TIAA-CREF has no defense contractors in their holdings. They have green companies but not defense companies.....

Quote:
Originally Posted by peter28 View Post
Coincidentally, in November I started a process of closing out my USAA managed money and transferring it into Vanguard (Vanguard charges less and USAA managed my money like a gov't bureaucracy - lot's of movement with no progress). However, I was fortunate enough to have my money out of the market and in the transfer process when US stock markets started to shit the bed. I requested Vanguard to sit tight and not put it in the market until we settle on a plan. I'm still out of the market and anticipate getting back in when I feel comfortable - not sure when that will be.

Does anyone else have the same sentiment or taking similar/different precautions?
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  #55  
Old 18 January 2016, 10:47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 'MisterWhite' View Post
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/o...s-oil-war.html

This, combined with the exposure US banks have to the energy sector.

We'll see tomorrow...
Can this correctly be called the bursting of the oil bubble?
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  #56  
Old 18 January 2016, 11:27
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http://investcorrectly.com/20141205/...-fargo-co-wfc/

In 2005-2007, the narrative was that (resdiental) mortgage backed securities were good/safe. This scenario now seems eerily similar.

Significant loan losses combined with already high levels of overall debt is a problem. Nobody can predict the weather, but the Dallas Fed is getting out the umbrellas..

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...ot-force-shale
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  #57  
Old 18 January 2016, 11:35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 'MisterWhite' View Post
http://investcorrectly.com/20141205/...-fargo-co-wfc/

In 2005-2007, the narrative was that (resdiental) mortgage backed securities were good/safe. This scenario now seems eerily similar.

Significant loan losses combined with already high levels of overall debt is a problem. Nobody can predict the weather, but the Dallas Fed is getting out the umbrellas..

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...ot-force-shale
As I understand it, the old CDOs have been renamed 'Bespoke Tranche Opportunities' as referred to in the book and movie, The Big Short. Do we ever learn from our mistakes?
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Death is a farcical pile of bullshit.

I refuse to participate.

The Oatmeal
Quote:
...it could be raining pu$$y and troops will complain and blame the leadership for not providing an equal ration of a$$holes

Billy L-Bach
Quote:
In Special Forces we had a saying: "Work hard in silence, let your success do the talking."

Tracy
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  #58  
Old 18 January 2016, 15:52
edd1e22 edd1e22 is offline
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Another exposure is covenant lite loans which have increased significantly (8% in 2014 to 20% in 2015)of the debt market. I've heard numbers thrown around that it's actually higher than that but can't verify.

I doubt it's going to be a depression so bad that we go to guns and use gold as an exchange medium but there's definitely more pain on the horizon.
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  #59  
Old 18 January 2016, 16:29
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LOL, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-16/exclusive-dallas-fed-quietly-suspends-energy-mark-market-tells-banks-not-force-shale

This seems EXACTLY like what happened in 2007/8. The Fed is trying to cover up the banks losses and potential future losses

Thanks for the insight Col Flagg.
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  #60  
Old 18 January 2016, 16:52
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The FED is speaking out of both sides of their mouths through their various branches in an attempt to cover their asses should they be unable to contain what is, IMO, an inevitability.

Yellen makes some soft comments after her official statements that 'the stock market is, perhaps, a bit overvalued'. Dallas Fed makes the above actions. I read about the energy sector triggering default swaps back in January of 2015 in the Wall Street Journal.

People that have been paying attention know the problems. I can't even count how many times I've seen 'ol Schiff state on CNBC that there is a bubble forming from a result of the FED's monetary 'extend and pretend' policies.......to which the usual dumbass Wall Street "insiders" continually laughed in his face and called him a chicken-little (while simultaneously screaming buy! buy! buy!).

That movie "The Big Short" was full of people like that. "oh ho ho! You really are a special breed of stupid if you think the housing market is in a bubble! Man you're dumb!". And, like earlier.............It's happening/happened again.
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