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  #21  
Old 17 July 2014, 15:19
Lagunaroy Lagunaroy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac View Post
Apparently Malaysia didn't get the memo. Then again, wasn't there another aircraft shot down like a week ago in the same area?

To your point though, controller problems? Sounds like bullshit to me. Controller problems, as in, guiding aircraft into areas to get shot down? Sounds like more than controller problems to me.
Agreed, words have meaning and I should have used instability instead. NOTAM is here https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/ifim/us_restrictions/media/2014_0214_04-29_FINAL_FDC_NOTAM4-7667_UKRAINE_SFAR.pdf
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  #22  
Old 17 July 2014, 15:37
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Originally Posted by btq96r View Post
Could Malaysian Airlines have ignored/accepted the risk of flying over a war zone to avoid having to buy & burn more fuel per flight?
That's exactly it. Large aircraft taxi out one engine and start the second just prior to takeoff, and even cruise speeds and reserve fuel are tightly calculated to optimize (minimize) fuel burn, so it was definitely a (the) major factor in the routing.
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  #23  
Old 17 July 2014, 16:27
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Ok, I am taking bets on who did it....
Russians 3-1
Ukraine Sep 5-1
Ukraine 2-1
Australia (caused they are so pissed off about all the money they spent looking for the other Malaysian A/C) Even Money

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  #24  
Old 17 July 2014, 16:47
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Originally Posted by Stopp700 View Post
Ok, I am taking bets on who did it....
Russians 3-1
Ukraine Sep 5-1
Ukraine 2-1
Australia (caused they are so pissed off about all the money they spent looking for the other Malaysian A/C) Even Money

The Russians have their hands all over this, even though it was most likely the separatists..

The head of the Separatists who Tweeted he thought he shot down a transport, is Frmr GRU/FSB, the Russians have SOF/FSB/GRU all over in that area stirring shit up and advising.

But most importantly... How the hell did they get a BUK..? Directly from the Russians obviously... A BUK is not like some RPG you could get at the Souk in Baghdad cerca 2004..

The BUK is a platform, complex SAM system that was provided by the Russians...

IMO, FIFA should pull the World Cup from the Russians in 2018. Do it now so they have time to get another sight ready.

Plus many more sanctions and make the Russians feel the cost of doing what they are doing...

Sltwtr1

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  #25  
Old 17 July 2014, 17:21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sltwtr1 View Post
IMO, FIFA should pull the World Cup from the Russians in 2018. Do it now so they have time to get another site ready. Plus many more sanctions and make the Russians feel the cost of doing what they are doing...
154 Dutch passport holders and 23 Americans, mix of other numbers of Malay, Indonesian, British, German, French, and Belgian.

There is NFW Russia isn't responsible for this.

Spooky interview on BBC World at Schipol with a guy and his wife and infant who were booked on the flight but decided to switch to a different airline at the last minute,
"something told us not to get on that plane".
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Last edited by bobofthedesert; 17 July 2014 at 17:34.
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  #26  
Old 17 July 2014, 17:33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobofthedesert View Post
154 Dutch passport holders, 27 Australian, 23 Americans, 6 Brits, and 4 French are the numbers being reported at present.

There is NFW Russia isn't responsible for this.

Spooky interview on BBC World at Schipol with a guy and his Malaysian wife and infant who were booked on the flight but decided to switch to a different airline at the last minute,
"something told us not to get on that plane".
While I have no doubt that the Russians could have been involved (not necessarily directly, but through the separatists, providing the SA capability, "advising", all that stuff, etc), I don't see much gain for them in shooting down a Malaysian Airlines flight with the above persons on board.

I think this was an "Oh shit, that was a passenger plane?" moment on either the Ukrainians or Separatists part. With the planes that have been shot down prior to this one, it's easy to see why either side might be a little quick on the trigger.
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  #27  
Old 17 July 2014, 17:35
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Is this the system? More importantly does it have Friend - Foe capabilities?



Quote:
Originally Posted by Sltwtr1 View Post
The Russians have their hands all over this, even though it was most likely the separatists..

The head of the Separatists who Tweeted he thought he shot down a transport, is Frmr GRU/FSB, the Russians have SOF/FSB/GRU all over in that area stirring shit up and advising.

But most importantly... How the hell did they get a BUK..? Directly from the Russians obviously... A BUK is not like some RPG you could get at the Souk in Baghdad cerca 2004..

The BUK is a platform, complex SAM system that was provided by the Russians...

IMO, FIFA should pull the World Cup from the Russians in 2018. Do it now so they have time to get another sight ready.

Plus many more sanctions and make the Russians feel the cost of doing what they are doing...

Sltwtr1

OUT
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  #28  
Old 17 July 2014, 17:53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobofthedesert View Post
154 Dutch passport holders and 23 Americans.
Sorry, that should have said "Australians". No Americans reported at this time.
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  #29  
Old 17 July 2014, 18:26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sltwtr1 View Post

They are part of Sky Team, that I don't fly unless forced to... However, what kind of standards does Sky Team have to allow their members to Codeshare, connect, etc to an airline that is obviously fucked up...

I fly Star Alliance and sometimes One World.. I highly doubt Star Alliance would allow Malaysian airlines to be a partner...

Generally speaking, the alliances are formed more or less as a marketing tool to increase revenue for member airlines. i.e. they're a 'strategic' way to try to funnel passengers crossing the globe onto alliance airlines, passengers are hooked with 'ease' of booking and loyalty points, etc.

Sometimes they'll faff about with 'similar cabin/passenger' offerings, but these don't seem to last long in the face of pure economics.

I know that some airlines consider them to be highly successful at increasing revenue (senior management talks, etc.), and I suspect they are in some cases, but I've always wanted to have a really good look at the books & overall costs/benefits myself (I'm apparently suspicious by nature ).

There are a number of airlines in each of the well known alliances that I would hesitate to (or would not) fly with.


The Malaysian aircraft flying over Ukraine hours after one of its sister ships was allegedly shot down seems to me to be indicative of a company that is not very good at making decisions about 'things', and that is very poor at communicating across the divisions. Which makes me worry.

That's almost a redundant comment given the shenanigans over their stealth machine, but it's one of those little things that says a lot (least of which is 'lessons learned').
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  #30  
Old 17 July 2014, 18:31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Justaclerk View Post
Is this the system? More importantly does it have Friend - Foe capabilities?

That's the Gadfly/Buk alright. It does have an IFF system, yes, plus an NCTR capability. This system and it's more advanced descendant, the SA-17 Grizzly/Buk M1-3 series are still being continually upgraded and new versions being developed.

FWIW - the Ukrainian military also operates this system, and the separatists as well as the Russian military, before they withdrew - did take a lot of military equipment from various bases and warehouses. That is pretty much how the separatists ended-up with T-64BV's, BMD-2 and BMP-2's... what they didn't take, the Russian army turned-over what they did.

So, it might be possible that a Gadfly or two ended-up in their hands this way? Still, this is assuming the Russians and/or the separatists are responsible for the shoot-down.
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  #31  
Old 17 July 2014, 18:41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fofo View Post
That's the Gadfly/Buk alright. It does have an IFF system, yes, plus an NCTR capability. This system and it's more advanced descendant, the SA-17 Grizzly/Buk M1-3 series are still being continually upgraded and new versions being developed.

FWIW - the Ukrainian military also operates this system, and the separatists as well as the Russian military, before they withdrew - did take a lot of military equipment from various bases and warehouses. That is pretty much how the separatists ended-up with T-64BV's, BMD-2 and BMP-2's... what they didn't take, the Russian army turned-over what they did.

So, it might be possible that a Gadfly or two ended-up in their hands this way? Still, this is assuming the Russians and/or the separatists are responsible for the shoot-down.
I was thinking that also... However, the reason for the sanctions that the US put on Russia just yesterday, were primarily because of the transfer of heavy/advanced weapon systems from the Russians.

Also, the Ukrainians state they have intercepted calls from the Separatist commander to a Russian intel agent basically giving an AAR of his shoot down of what he thought at the time, was a Ukrainian mil plane (directly after the 777 was shot down).

Thirdly... Maybe they captured stockpiles, however, historically, even when opposition forces capture advanced mil hardware.. If they are not resupplied with the parts, have the tech support, new missiles, etc, the weapon system has a short shelf life..

Think Stingers in Afghanistan.. They had tubes back in the day. But were not able to replace the batteries and missiles..

Or Iran with their F-14 fleet..

Hence, my gut tell me Russia was supplying the weapons systems or the parts/equipment/tech support to keep the systems operational..

I might be way off base... However, I think there is a good possibility I am not...

Sltwtr1

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  #32  
Old 17 July 2014, 19:03
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fofo View Post
That's the Gadfly/Buk alright. It does have an IFF system, yes, plus an NCTR capability. This system and it's more advanced descendant, the SA-17 Grizzly/Buk M1-3 series are still being continually upgraded and new versions being developed.

FWIW - the Ukrainian military also operates this system, and the separatists as well as the Russian military, before they withdrew - did take a lot of military equipment from various bases and warehouses. That is pretty much how the separatists ended-up with T-64BV's, BMD-2 and BMP-2's... what they didn't take, the Russian army turned-over what they did.

So, it might be possible that a Gadfly or two ended-up in their hands this way? Still, this is assuming the Russians and/or the separatists are responsible for the shoot-down.
IFF vs Transponder systems, different animals.
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  #33  
Old 17 July 2014, 20:43
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This is Russian handiwork IMO. I suspect USG already knows this and is too afraid to say so.

Sad day.
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  #34  
Old 17 July 2014, 20:51
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RIP and prayers out the families of the victims.

Ironically, just yesterday I was joking with a co-worker here about how since the "Missing Malaysian Airline" incident, we would never fly Malaysian Air. Then this.
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  #35  
Old 17 July 2014, 20:56
Akheloce Akheloce is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Justaclerk View Post
Is this the system? More importantly does it have Friend - Foe capabilities?

Yeah, has IFF and NCTR.

IFF should more correctly be called "Identify Friend or maybe not Friend"

It just tells the radar whether or not the target has the appropriate codes for a friendly aircraft. If it does not have the proper codes, it is unknown... possibly hostile, possibly non-combatant, possibly a friendly which airman Snuffy loaded the wrong info into, or CPT Pilot forgot to turn on.

NCTR uses other means to help identify an aircraft (think- like identifying a specific ship with sonar). I seriously doubt that whoever shot this missile was using NTCR as indented, if they even knew how to use it.
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  #36  
Old 17 July 2014, 21:11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silverbullet View Post
This is Russian handiwork IMO. I suspect USG already knows this and is too afraid to say so.

Sad day.
^^^this x2

Combine this with the possibility of US citizens (as being reported) on board. I believe the administration is pissing themselves.
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  #37  
Old 17 July 2014, 21:16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenMeany 5 View Post
^^^this x2

Combine this with the possibility of US citizens (as being reported) on board. I believe the administration is pissing themselves.
Maybe not. I mean who cares about a few illegals at this point right? I mean US Citizens may have been shot down. Terrorism!!!!!
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  #38  
Old 17 July 2014, 21:31
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I'm not all on board the Yellow Cake Express yet.
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  #39  
Old 17 July 2014, 21:43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Justaclerk View Post
Is this the system? More importantly does it have Friend - Foe capabilities?

That's the system. This is the TELAR module. The dome in the front is the fire control/missile guidance radar. There's a second vehicle that's just a TEL; and the third vehicle has the target acquisition radar and the IFF piece.
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  #40  
Old 17 July 2014, 21:56
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A 3D CGI rendition of most of the Buk complex, of the vehicles Tracy mentioned. These are what you should find in a newer, upgraded Buk battery and related service vehicles - minus the mobile workshop and a couple of other support vehicles.


Attachment 27880

Attachment 27881
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Last edited by The Fat Guy; 21 July 2014 at 08:58.
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