SOCNET

Go Back   SOCNET: The Special Operations Community Network > General Topics > History

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #21  
Old 24 September 2018, 09:28
1RiserSlip's Avatar
1RiserSlip 1RiserSlip is offline
Been There Done That
 
Join Date: May 2015
Location: W. Slope of Big Sewell Mtn.
Posts: 4,624
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul85 View Post
I once wanted to write a book about "what ifs" of history..
You just did.
__________________
I won't be wronged. I won't be insulted. I won't be laid a hand on. I don't do these things to other people and I require the same from them.

John Wayne as J.B. Books in the Shootist
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 24 September 2018, 11:08
leopardprey's Avatar
leopardprey leopardprey is online now
Been There Done That
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Indiana
Posts: 11,786
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1RiserSlip View Post
You just did.
Lmao...
__________________

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
"Look Sharp, Act Sharp, Be Sharp - But don't cut yourself!"
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 24 September 2018, 12:52
MixedLoad's Avatar
MixedLoad MixedLoad is offline
Been There Done That
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: NORCAL
Posts: 8,626
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1RiserSlip View Post
You just did.
Quote:
Originally Posted by leopardprey View Post
Lmao...
Well played.

As to your question, LP, I would say that it's impossible to predict how things would have shaken out.

The what if's of a successful assassination of Hitler, an internal revolt under Stalin after one too many purges, Germany and Japan competing incessantly for the master race...

What's more important is to learn from history and work towards smarter and more decisive outcomes.
__________________
“Suaviter in modo, fortiter in re"

"Operator much like rock and roll, is dead." - ClearedHot
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 24 September 2018, 17:03
Paul85 Paul85 is offline
I still think I'm fooling everyone
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Poland
Posts: 1,366
Quote:
You just did.
It would've been the smallest book ever made then
But granted, all of my post fits into one single A4 page. So it's a start!

Jokes aside, all of this boils down to if if if if. And assassination attempts on Hitler are a story into themselves, beginning in 1934 (there were actually about 25 such documented attempts, 9 of which happened before WWII started). They are a whole 'nother bag of "what if's"...
__________________
Who are you, the apostrophe police? - Bobofthedesert
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 25 September 2018, 06:02
tm3e tm3e is offline
Confirmed User
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: australia
Posts: 553
Hitlers Table Talk contains excerpts where Hitler supposedly says that after the war is brought to a victorious conclusion there will be huge opportunities in the eastern territories for enterprising folk from around the world to build a future. I'm guessing that with human nature what it is a huge number would've taken advantage of such an opportunity to build their own Tara and live like a Game Of Thrones Lord.
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 25 September 2018, 06:25
1RiserSlip's Avatar
1RiserSlip 1RiserSlip is offline
Been There Done That
 
Join Date: May 2015
Location: W. Slope of Big Sewell Mtn.
Posts: 4,624
The Nazi Corporal was playing a long game of Risk. He got too aggressive and ended up with all his Armies withdrawing to Northern Europe.

Game over.
__________________
I won't be wronged. I won't be insulted. I won't be laid a hand on. I don't do these things to other people and I require the same from them.

John Wayne as J.B. Books in the Shootist
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 25 September 2018, 06:44
leopardprey's Avatar
leopardprey leopardprey is online now
Been There Done That
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Indiana
Posts: 11,786
If he would have just left Russia alone and instead invaded Great Britain.....

Then wait to go after Russia about a decade later.
__________________

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
"Look Sharp, Act Sharp, Be Sharp - But don't cut yourself!"
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 25 September 2018, 07:30
Paul85 Paul85 is offline
I still think I'm fooling everyone
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Poland
Posts: 1,366
Quote:
enterprising folk from around the world to build a future.
Himmler promised lots of land for his top SS dogs (above Gruppenfuhrer) but smaller ones as well.
The what ifs of this also stretch to Nazi architecture and grandiose plans of creation of huge, insanely large cities filled with towering edifices of Nazi might.

Quote:
If he would have just left Russia alone and instead invaded Great Britain
Russia, more specifically Ukraine, was a resource bank desperately needed by the Reich. The natural resources and slave labor were too big of a bounty to pass on it.

Stalin seemed to be aware of this, because if we believe Montefiore and his book, after Ribbentrop-Mołotow pact was written he told his paladins that he knew it's a game and the Germans will ultimately go after the Soviet Union. Seems that he thought that SU had 1-2 or more years available before Germans decide to invade. He miscalculated - badly. And the army, with majority of officers and competent technical/military personnel wiped out after purges, was totally DOA when push came to shove. If it wasn't for the U.S. the Soviet Union would ultimately fold IMHO. Because you can do only so much with manpower.

Britain, on the other hand, was considered more or less a stepping stone towards America and an issue to be solved in terms of control over Atlantic.
__________________
Who are you, the apostrophe police? - Bobofthedesert
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 25 September 2018, 11:21
ET1/ss nuke's Avatar
ET1/ss nuke ET1/ss nuke is offline
If you don't smell ozone, the radiation won't kill you before next week.
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: sc
Posts: 5,839
Reading the things Hitler and other top Nazis wrote is sometimes challenging because sometimes they conceal parts of their agenda from public view (Thule Society stuff), sometimes they just lie for the sake of convenience (Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact), and sometimes plans they actually believed in just changed over time due to circumstances (the Final Solution was at one point a plan to deport Europe's Jews to Madagascar). Mein Kampf is so disorganized and rambling that it is of limited utility. Sometimes the best sources are their own private diaries.

Reading through all that stuff, though, leaves me with the notion that the Nazis saw world domination as a possible outcome that could become a necessity, but not necessarily a desirable state of affairs. They were insistent on the need for the Leibensraum of Poland, Ukraine, and Belarus (the areas they had already colonized in 1918 after Brest-Litovsk) and the Russian Caucasus. Beyond that, though, Hitler wanted personal revenge on France and England for their actions after 11 Nov 1918 which he saw as crimes against humanity (Britain's starvation blockade, French occupation of the Ruhr until 1930, etc.), but otherwise didn't see the utility in conquering those places (he would have been just as happy to inflict great destruction upon them). Hitler's concept of National Socialism was designed to produce an Aryan society that would neither need nor want imports nor exports, using the subjugated population of Eastern Europe to reconcile the economic cognitive dissonance inherent within totalitarian socialism. They really thought they were building an earthly paradise that they didn't want to share with the rest of the unworthy world. Nuking New York was not designed as the first step toward conquest, but instead to subjugate America into accepting isolationism on Germany's terms, not their own. Hitler hated non-white people, but unless it involved making them into useful slaves somehow, he didn't want to be bothered with dealing with them at all. He even tried to deport the Jews under his control repeatedly before wholesale extermination became his main plan for them. Hitler's greatest criticism of Soviet socialism (Jewish bolshevism, as he called it) was its internationalist nature, which is why he specifically called his version National Socialism.
__________________
"I don't know whether the world is run by smart men who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Twain

"I agree that his intentions are suspect, and that he likely needs to die...." - SOTB

"Just a lone patriot acting alone at a fulcrum point, ideally in a deniable fashion. A perpetrator of accidents." - Magician
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 25 September 2018, 13:46
Paul85 Paul85 is offline
I still think I'm fooling everyone
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Poland
Posts: 1,366
It's true that Hitler had deprecated the U.S. strength, going as far as saying that it had no fighting power whatsoever. And German High Command knew since the beginning of the war that America was beyond direct invasion for the time being.

Having said that, as early as in 30s Hitler was thinking about U.S. as a foe and enemy in the future, right after the Soviet Union. The nature of the regime was not resting on the laurels, but conquest. What they presented themselves as and the goals they promoted was IMO different than their very nature and real plans, even as nebulous as they were.

IMHO it's safe to assume that even though the Third Reich saw no immediate need to go after U.S. (the flubbed Operation Pastorius notwithstanding), they saw U.S not as a country to be left alone in the long run. It's that they had neither the capability nor inclination to engage U.S. directly at the beginning of the war, and when invasion on SU failed they were more occupied with trying to stand their ground in Europe against Allied forces. So what we're left with is their ideas and plans for a short time, and since the Reich never won the war we can't speculate with any degree of accuracy what they'd do next, having conquered entire Europe and Soviet Union.

Knowing the nature of the beast, so to speak, and knowing what Hitler and his minions hinted at, I seriously doubt they would be content with America being left to its own devices, definitely not in the long run. But this delay might've allowed the U.S. to advance far enough technologically to be able to contain the Nazi Germany or remain in a permanent arms race with them. So we'd have not Soviet Bloc vs NATO/America, but German/Japanese bloc vs America. A different version of the Cold War.

BTW, for whoever is interested, The Man in the High Castle is a nice book. Even if it's only a very speculative fiction.
__________________
Who are you, the apostrophe police? - Bobofthedesert
Reply With Quote
  #31  
Old 26 September 2018, 08:56
Paul85 Paul85 is offline
I still think I'm fooling everyone
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Poland
Posts: 1,366
To follow up a bit on the "what ifs" of German victory in WWII, here's some input courtesy of brilliantmaps.

Following maps are from the above linked source.

Here's how it looked at the height of Nazi empire:




How the beforementioned Man in High Castle presents the WWII outcome:




Or In Presence of Mine Enemies from 2003:



And here you can read interesting input on how the future Nazi society and world would look like.
__________________
Who are you, the apostrophe police? - Bobofthedesert

Last edited by Paul85; 26 September 2018 at 09:01.
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 27 September 2018, 23:52
1RiserSlip's Avatar
1RiserSlip 1RiserSlip is offline
Been There Done That
 
Join Date: May 2015
Location: W. Slope of Big Sewell Mtn.
Posts: 4,624
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul85 View Post
To follow up a bit on the "what ifs" of German victory in WWII, here's some input courtesy of brilliantmaps.

Following maps are from the above linked source.

Here's how it looked at the height of Nazi empire:




How the beforementioned Man in High Castle presents the WWII outcome:




Or In Presence of Mine Enemies from 2003:



And here you can read interesting input on how the future Nazi society and world would look like.

I'm trying to think of something really intelligent, profound, condescending and insulting to say to the guy from Poland.

But I don't have the vocabulary.
__________________
I won't be wronged. I won't be insulted. I won't be laid a hand on. I don't do these things to other people and I require the same from them.

John Wayne as J.B. Books in the Shootist
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 28 September 2018, 02:51
Paul85 Paul85 is offline
I still think I'm fooling everyone
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Poland
Posts: 1,366
Quote:
I'm trying to think of something really intelligent, profound, condescending and insulting to say to the guy from Poland.
But I don't have the vocabulary.
Your sense of humor is amazing.

I use too many ten dollar words in too many hundred dollar sentences. Instead I should've said: No matter what Poland would be fucked. America maybe would be fucked or maybe not. Depends. The end.
__________________
Who are you, the apostrophe police? - Bobofthedesert
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 5 October 2018, 12:53
Armitage12 Armitage12 is offline
Confronting the Reckoning
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Old North West
Posts: 1,330
LeopardPrey asked me to weigh in, and work has kept interfering. I think ETS1/ss Nuke's counterfactual worked well -- though it presumes that Hitler would have been satisfied in the end with just Europe/Africa and the Atlantic. I suspect Hitler's desire to have a major surface fleet (he doesn't switch to the U-boats right away) portends an eventual intention of becoming the predominant sea power as well as land power once the British are reduced. I can see this in part through Churchill's willingness to order the RN to attack the French Navy after the surrender if the individual ships and squadrons are unwilling to join the RN or go into exile in neutral ports. He feared deeply the French navy joining Hitler's surface fleet.

Killroy's point too is well taken: the German interest in nuclear matters and missile may well have, if the U.S. had stayed out, continued onwards until out of military innovation rather than immediate military necessity the Germans figured out the designs of both. Then the deeper fear of U.S. officials after Pearl Harbor would have been realized anyway -- the danger that the two ocean moat could be crossed and the naval advantage was no more. [But he's partly wrong on that being the reason for Germany First-- that had to do with keeping the UK and France alive, for fear that the Germans would by winning affect global (read Atlantic) trade].

To get back to LeopardPrey's earlier question, though: what does such a counterfactual mean for understanding our current conflict? Actually, I think he's on to something, though he might not have intended to raise this. The current conflict is actually similar to the Cold War. Here's why. The Cold War began over trying to keep the Soviets out of Western Europe, keeping them from gaining total control over Germany, and restraining their domination of Eastern Europe. That was it, until things start to go global after 1950 [Mao, China, North Korea]. So what began in one area for one reason turns into a much bigger, much longer lasting thing.

The questions we should look at, then, are how and why are the leaders in positions of authority able to convince the electorate and the Congress (and, in a way, the military leadership) to alter course or broaden the scope of the strategic danger to go farther than first thought? In the case of the Cold War, we point to Korea, really. In the case of post 9/11, it is the National Security Strategy document, the one that identified that the U.S. needed to go after instability over a much broader area to eliminate the kinds of conditions that made it possible for bin Ladens to appear and to gain strength. Therein lies the most fruitful line of counterfactual questions, it seems to me. What happens if the U.S. does not have the NSS in 2002? What if we confine ourselves to Afghanistan and do not go beyond [and I will not limit that to Iraq like so many of my colleagues do]? Would we be here where we are? Would LP have the concerns he does?
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 5 October 2018, 16:52
ET1/ss nuke's Avatar
ET1/ss nuke ET1/ss nuke is offline
If you don't smell ozone, the radiation won't kill you before next week.
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: sc
Posts: 5,839
Quote:
Originally Posted by Armitage12 View Post
What happens if the U.S. does not have the NSS in 2002? What if we confine ourselves to Afghanistan and do not go beyond [and I will not limit that to Iraq like so many of my colleagues do]? Would we be here where we are? Would LP have the concerns he does?
You could easily take that a step further by following the path recommended over and over by so many of the people here who spent time in that vicinity: What if we weren't even in Afghanistan in 2002 because in the previous year we invaded, overthrew the Taliban, killed folks and blasted stuff, then left?
__________________
"I don't know whether the world is run by smart men who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Twain

"I agree that his intentions are suspect, and that he likely needs to die...." - SOTB

"Just a lone patriot acting alone at a fulcrum point, ideally in a deniable fashion. A perpetrator of accidents." - Magician
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 5 October 2018, 17:42
leopardprey's Avatar
leopardprey leopardprey is online now
Been There Done That
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Indiana
Posts: 11,786
Quote:
Originally Posted by ET1/ss nuke View Post
You could easily take that a step further by following the path recommended over and over by so many of the people here who spent time in that vicinity: What if we weren't even in Afghanistan in 2002 because in the previous year we invaded, overthrew the Taliban, killed folks and blasted stuff, then left?
Well that is what should have happened.
__________________

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
"Look Sharp, Act Sharp, Be Sharp - But don't cut yourself!"
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 5 October 2018, 21:59
pavegnr's Avatar
pavegnr pavegnr is offline
Been There Done That
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: bama
Posts: 924
History is a funny thing. No matter what piece you pull out there is always another asshole that wants to change it. Say Hitler or Stalin was removed, who is to say there was not another waiting in their place to do worse things?
There is always that chance the second in line makes the first one look like an angel. If my memory is not going bad on me which it may be. Castro's brother was reportedly worse than he was.
__________________
"Life is hard. It's even harder if you're stupid." John Wayne

William Tecumseh Sherman-
I hate newspapermen. They come into camp and pick up their camp rumors and print them as facts. I regard them as spies, which, in truth, they are. If I killed them all there would be news from Hell before breakfast.
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 14 October 2018, 22:55
smp52 smp52 is offline
Confirmed User
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: So. Cal
Posts: 1,542
Quote:
Originally Posted by MixedLoad View Post
learn from history and work towards smarter and more decisive outcomes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Armitage12 View Post
The questions we should look at, then, are how and why are the leaders in positions of authority able to convince the electorate and the Congress (and, in a way, the military leadership) to alter course or broaden the scope of the strategic danger to go farther than first thought?
Concur...

There is a big gray space between historical events & conditions and the interactions/decisions that gave rise to them IMHO. There are different lenses from which we can make meaning from past experiences, but there's always a big degree of uncertainty when implying what key figures "felt" or "wanted" outside of hard documented evidence tied to the specific event or condition. It is the space of speculation and where a lot of pseudo social science (irrespective of one's inclination) sits at.

IMO, the book Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crises and Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow apply here.

The first book is has two quotes which sums up the uncertainty and randomness involved in life, leadership, and decision making. The wisdom IMO is ahead of its time in a psychological sense (subject object orientation):

From JFK:
"The essence of ultimate decision remains impenetrable to the observer - often, indeed, to the decider himself...There will always be dark and tangled stretches in the decision making process - mysterious even to those who may be most intimately involved "

From Alexis de Tocqueville
"I have come across men of letters who have written history without taking part in public affairs, and politicians who have concerned themselves with producing events without thinking about them. I have observed that the first are always inclined to find general causes whereas the second, living in the midst of disconnected daily facts, are prone to imagine that everything is attributable to particular incidents, and that the wires they pull are the same as those that move the world. It is to be presumed that both are equally deceived"

From Daniel Kahneman:
“At work here is that powerful WYSIATI ("what you see is all there is") rule. You cannot help dealing with the limited information you have as if it were all there is to know. You build the best possible story from the information available to you, and if it is a good story, you believe it. Paradoxically, it is easier to construct a coherent story when you know little, when there are fewer pieces to fit into the puzzle. Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.”
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 17 October 2018, 07:29
RangerCharlie's Avatar
RangerCharlie RangerCharlie is offline
A/1/75
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: VA
Posts: 8,277
The US would have been isolated but protected. Neither Japan nor Germany could have invaded. US issue was protecting its huge coastline.

Regarding invading Russia, Germany should have went South thru Ukraine and then hooked left to the East of Moscow cutting off that entire area. That would have taken Russia out.
__________________
Trust but Verify

Charlie
Reply With Quote
  #40  
Old 17 October 2018, 12:16
Polypro's Avatar
Polypro Polypro is offline
BTDT
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
Location: A Noisy Bar In Avalon
Posts: 12,988
What if.... we had Glass-Steagall like protections in place before 1933, and the Crash of '29 never happened? Adolf who? Oh, that nut-job - pass me another schnitzel... The Weimar Republic was mortgaged to the hilt, but they were happy AF - the 20 million % inflation is what ole' Adolf capitalized on.
__________________
What, you want to be part of a choir in an echo chamber? Provocate!
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Our new posting rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:43.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Socnet.com All Rights Reserved
© SOCNET 1996-2018