Syria thumbnail sketch

[CA SGT]

For those still in the game, can you provide a thumbnail sketch of Syria...who's who, who's tipping up with who, who are we supporting overtly/covertly so to speak....

I've lost track...seriously....but I'm off the playing field for awhile now

[Sharky]

Even the guys who are there on the ground right now couldn't completely answer that question. Believe me.

[CA SGT]

Copy....

[RedBull]

Main forces:
Syria gov forces:Mainly Iranian irregulars/hezbollah affiliate militias (supported by Russian and Syria air forces) do most of the Syria ground fighting (Iran has been using afgh refugees to supplement forces promising $ and citizenship to martyrs)
YPG/SDF-US supported forces mainly Kurdish with some Arabic elements
Turkmen/multiple groups-supported by Turkey not openly supported by US. Mainly run around atking Kurdish areas and currently near al bab (not high in numbers but has full Turkish support)
Nusra- AQ seperated group tends to carry rest of the Islamist groups. Probably most effective group outside of kurdish /Arab alliance.
FSA-pretty much a shell Iof its former self-coalition supported but units tend to fade and reappear with other groups alot. Terrible leadership & command & control. Ineffective due to interconflict between groups politically and militarily.

That's about it. Of course you have ISIS still and other groups but those are really the main headliners. With the fall of Aleppo, the Syrians will probably push further into rebel areas in 2017 leaving the kurdish/Arab alliance alone.
the Turkish groups will continue to push on the kurdish front (only reason Turkey really went in was to halt Kurdish group expansion) possible CF with Assad forces in 2017 (bad for ypg/Arab alliance)
Nusra well they probably won't expand or shrink much depends on if ISIS loses raqqa. Still a threat largely peglegged due to losing Aleppo and significance. Still a mild threat to about everyone.

That about Sum's up the major forces (combining smaller localized forces into larger ones)

Main actirs
Syrian gov
Kurd/Arab alliance
Nusra
Turkmen
ISIS

[CA SGT]

Good copy on all

Thanks

[RedBull]

Originally Posted by CA SGT

Good copy on all

Thanks

No problem.
in 2017 you should look for kurd vs Turk forces and kurd vs others (Nusra etc) if turk/Syria sign agreement the ypg is fucked. But only officially. Much like Iranian kurds ypg (Syrian) have taken advantage of situation. AT4s are in possession of Iranian seperatists as well as other weapons by the coalition. They will be used here soon. After ISIS Iran will experience issues. Just wait and see

[IrishSoldier]

Listen to Joshua Landis for all things Syria. He may not understand American politics, but he understands Syria.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6NvEh0Olvw

[SolidSnake]

[tm3e]

From what's on Liveleak Deir ez-Zor looks critical with ISIS breaking Government forward defenses and taking more ground around the military airport. They say ISIS has deployed into action some sort of strategic reserve brought in from Iraq, first used to retake Palmyra and now Deir ez-Zor . U.S. Coalition bombing of Syrian defenses a few months ago allowed ISIS to take critical government fire support positions and it seems to have been all downhill for the Syrian army since then.

[RedBull]

Originally Posted by tm3e

From what's on Liveleak Deir ez-Zor looks critical with ISIS breaking Government forward defenses and taking more ground around the military airport. They say ISIS has deployed into action some sort of strategic reserve brought in from Iraq, first used to retake Palmyra and now Deir ez-Zor . U.S. Coalition bombing of Syrian defenses a few months ago allowed ISIS to take critical government fire support positions and it seems to have been all downhill for the Syrian army since then.

ISIS deployed their "special forces" units *the ones that retook palmyra) but i dont think it will help in keeping ground. What you'll see is what the Taliban & AQ resorted to once Raqqa falls. They (ISIS) will take advantage of security weakpoints, operate in smaller coexisting networks with each being ran by their own "brain" even if assad wins, there will no doubt be violence for years to come. The situation is very fluid but if 2017 has anything to come it'll probably be the fall of Raqqa for ISIS. Nusra will gain recruits from the Raqqa fall and those truly dedicated will form cells independent of a general commander. The kurds will probably fight Turkish troops and groups allied to them. Nusra again will be rooted in areas disenfranchised by assad or other groups. If Nusra fully breaks from AQ ideology you could see a reemergence and more support for them by more moderate groups.