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  #1701  
Old 26 March 2020, 10:48
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Originally Posted by Polypro View Post
Just released CDC Study on *U.S.* patients in pic below.

Yup, lets not let the under 45 crowd keep this country humming and develop Herd Immunity for something that their most likely won't ever be a vaccine for. For god's sake, think of the children.
Mass DPH puts out a PDF at 4pm everyday. It includes this breakout of deaths.

Rarely has there been anyone under 70 on this list of deceased. I do believe there is credence to the "protect the vulnerable" theory.

I am all for sacrifice for the greater good. But we cannot sit in our houses forever. People will only do it for so long.

I say this with two mid 80's in-laws who treat me better than my own parents ever did and I love them dearly.
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  #1702  
Old 26 March 2020, 11:03
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Originally Posted by Polypro View Post
Just released CDC Study on *U.S.* patients in pic below.

Yup, lets not let the under 45 crowd keep this country humming and develop Herd Immunity for something that their most likely won't ever be a vaccine for. For god's sake, think of the children. I don't recall ever seeing a 0.0% CFR for influenza? And just to preempt - Accurate CFRs benefit from massive samples, so even these numbers would go down further.

Now you get why the Nazi Party was able to do what it did - massive collusion between the .gov, "experts" and the media, mind controlling the populace.

And no, I'm not equating U.S. entities with Nazi's - just the tactics that get a massive amount of people, to agree/do something.
I don't know how reliable this website is but Italy may not have such a dramatic death rate from the Boomer Remover virus

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/23/...id19-as-cause/

a quote from the article
Quote:
It means that the Italian death toll figures could have been artificially inflated by up to 88%. If true, this would mean the total number of Italians who have actually died of Covid19 could be as low as ~700. Which would bring Italy, currently a statistical outlier in terms of Covid19 fatalities, well in line with the rest of the world.

It means thousands of deaths currently widely attributed to Covid19, and being used to justify the introduction of measures equating to medical martial law, may not have died of covid19 at all but of their serious chronic co-morbidity (cancer, heart disease etc.).
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  #1703  
Old 26 March 2020, 11:14
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Originally Posted by Jakers View Post
Yes, technically it did- the guy who returned from China went up there. There was a second case in a teen a few weeks later and then the big (by COVID standards) rush of cases from the nursing home starting on 2/28.

BUT, it had been circulating in the community well before that- the earliest confirmed deaths in Washington are now from 2/26; found on the post-mortems and not associated with other known cases.
Jan 15th is what it looks like - who/what else did he do from the 15th to the 19th? And he was on a plane with all Seattle bound people. The "Aerosol" worry was WAY overblown, but it wasn't zero, given perfect circumstances (See Edit)

Quote:
He arrived Jan. 19 at an urgent-care clinic in a suburb north of Seattle with a slightly elevated temperature and a cough he’d developed soon after returning four days earlier from a visit with family in Wuhan, China.
Edit: Overblown Aerosol:

Quote:
A March 17 study in the New England Journal of Medicine seemed to justify the fear of airborne spread, showing that the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 could survive in the air for up to 3 hours as an aerosol.

But Yang doesn't see it that way. The new study showed that the virus was viable as an aerosol in a lab, but not in real life, he said. In the study, the researchers "took extremely concentrated virus, much more concentrated than a person makes, they used an artificial aerosol machine [a nebulizer], which probably generates way more aerosol than a normal person does," Yang said. "So their conclusions were in this system."

The researchers of that study looked at SARS-CoV-1 (the original SARS from the 2003 outbreak) and SARS-CoV-2 and found that both could be aerosols. "But we already know that the original SARS virus was not transmitted that way," in the general public, so that makes their model "not very believable," Yang said.

In other words, except in certain hospital situations such as a bronchoscopy, which essentially creates a fine mist of virus, SARS-CoV-2 is likely spread mostly through droplets, like the flu, Yang said. That's supported by a Feb. 24 case report in the Canadian Medical Association Journal, which found a man sick with COVID-19 on a flight from China to Canada in January did not infect his fellow passengers, even though he had a dry cough during the 15-hour flight. The man was wearing a face mask, but because no one else on the plane got infected, this case "supports droplet transmission, not airborne, as the likely route of spread of the COVID-19," the researchers of the case study found.
Site surveys in China overwhelming found no aerosol. There was only one (public?) bathroom where it was detected due to fecal matter being agitated by the water.
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WHO lauds lockdown-ignoring Sweden as a ‘model’ for countries going forward.

By Jackie Salo, NY Post

April 29, 2020 | 3:24pm

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Last edited by Polypro; 26 March 2020 at 11:38.
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  #1704  
Old 26 March 2020, 11:24
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Originally Posted by ricardo View Post
I don't know how reliable this website is but Italy may not have such a dramatic death rate from the Boomer Remover virus

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/23/...id19-as-cause/
Here's who helped with that article:

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

All you have to do is verify the numbers - but they are matching what the rest of planet is seeing with the 'Under 45 Set'.
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WHO lauds lockdown-ignoring Sweden as a ‘model’ for countries going forward.

By Jackie Salo, NY Post

April 29, 2020 | 3:24pm

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  #1705  
Old 26 March 2020, 11:25
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O_pos, Chesie, et al., not sure how y'all are decon your N95s, we are going to vaporized hydrogen peroxide:

https://corporate.dukehealth.org/new...l&utm_content=
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  #1706  
Old 26 March 2020, 11:27
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Originally Posted by Polypro View Post
Jan 15th is what it looks like - who/what else did he do from the 15th to the 19th? And he was on a plane with all Seattle bound people. The "Aerosol" worry was WAY overblown, but it wasn't zero, given perfect circumstances - which even I can admit, may exist on a plane.
When this stuff stops and life gets back to normal, our state may actually be a good one to possibly study in reference to the methods of "spreading." I'm not sure how many of you have been to a NO Mardi Gras but it usually has upwards of a million or so people in a very small space.

Our numbers have been spreading like wildfire now that a lot of tests are being conducted. Our first several hundred were in the New Orleans area for a good while and then started to spread fairly quickly. Yesterday, the Governor said he believed the huge spread was due to Mardi Gras since the timeframe fits so well.

It will be interesting to see. Per capita, we are in line with Italy -- according to what the LDH is telling us. I wonder if it is an environmental thing possibly?
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  #1707  
Old 26 March 2020, 11:34
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Originally Posted by Mars View Post
When this stuff stops and life gets back to normal, our state may actually be a good one to possibly study in reference to the methods of "spreading." I'm not sure how many of you have been to a NO Mardi Gras but it usually has upwards of a million or so people in a very small space.

Our numbers have been spreading like wildfire now that a lot of tests are being conducted. Our first several hundred were in the New Orleans area for a good while and then started to spread fairly quickly. Yesterday, the Governor said he believed the huge spread was due to Mardi Gras since the timeframe fits so well.

It will be interesting to see. Per capita, we are in line with Italy -- according to what the LDH is telling us. I wonder if it is an environmental thing possibly?
Like dropping a stone into a still body of water.
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  #1708  
Old 26 March 2020, 11:37
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Originally Posted by Mars View Post
When this stuff stops and life gets back to normal, our state may actually be a good one to possibly study in reference to the methods of "spreading." I'm not sure how many of you have been to a NO Mardi Gras but it usually has upwards of a million or so people in a very small space.

Our numbers have been spreading like wildfire now that a lot of tests are being conducted. Our first several hundred were in the New Orleans area for a good while and then started to spread fairly quickly. Yesterday, the Governor said he believed the huge spread was due to Mardi Gras since the timeframe fits so well.

It will be interesting to see. Per capita, we are in line with Italy -- according to what the LDH is telling us. I wonder if it is an environmental thing possibly?
One of my former co-workers, Randy Kearns, is a prof at the University of New Orleans now. He's another SME; look him up. If you are on FB he's been putting out some pretty good stuff specific to NO and Louisiana.
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  #1709  
Old 26 March 2020, 11:37
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Originally Posted by Justaclerk View Post
Like dropping a stone into a still body of water.
Perfect description. It's actually crazy to see how fast it spread here throughout the state. However, the majority of our cases are still in the Orleans/Jefferson Parish area of the state.
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  #1710  
Old 26 March 2020, 11:39
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Question

Question for our statisticians and analysts. All the graphs I’ve seen here show x/y coordinate displays. Wouldn’t it be better to show spider graphs that indicate the numbers but also direction of travel starting from an epicenter. I would think that this would be far more enlightening.
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  #1711  
Old 26 March 2020, 11:46
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Originally Posted by Mars View Post
I'm not sure how many of you have been to a NO Mardi Gras but it usually has upwards of a million or so people in a very small space.

It was the Beads

In all seriousness - see if you can find historical data for Influenza admissions during/after Mardi Gras - especially 2017/2018 - to compare. It's still not perfect, because, with all the hysteria and panic that was promulgated, anyone that coughs once is now going to the hospital - back then it would have been "I caught the SHOT Show/Mardi Gras Crud" and they just crawl into bed - so no record created.
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WHO lauds lockdown-ignoring Sweden as a ‘model’ for countries going forward.

By Jackie Salo, NY Post

April 29, 2020 | 3:24pm

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Last edited by Polypro; 26 March 2020 at 11:52.
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  #1712  
Old 26 March 2020, 11:49
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This may be beating a dead horse, but has anything happened that truly contradicts the Carnival Cruise ship? That did show that about 80% of the population on the ship was immune, and less than 1% were affected on the ship, and less died. Is that information no longer relevant?
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  #1713  
Old 26 March 2020, 11:49
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Originally Posted by Polypro View Post
It was the Beads
Brother, there are some of those beads I wouldn't touch in MOPP 4...
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  #1714  
Old 26 March 2020, 11:59
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Brother, there are some of those beads I wouldn't touch in MOPP 4...
No kidding. COVID is the least of your worries if you're handling random Mardi Gras beads.
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  #1715  
Old 26 March 2020, 12:05
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Originally Posted by chokeu2 View Post
This may be beating a dead horse, but has anything happened that truly contradicts the Carnival Cruise ship? That did show that about 80% of the population on the ship was immune, and less than 1% were affected on the ship, and less died. Is that information no longer relevant?
Great question, I'd like to know, too. But there's been some info since then: certain blood types are predisposed, women have higher risk. We don't know these as applied to the ship, but it would be neat to know. You could take that info and apply it as a sample to larger populations and get some pretty good info. The more variables you can control, the better the study. Then we could see if the cruise ship was representative or an anomaly.
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  #1716  
Old 26 March 2020, 12:11
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Originally Posted by Devildoc View Post
women have higher risk.
I'm seeing totally the opposite, got a link?
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WHO lauds lockdown-ignoring Sweden as a ‘model’ for countries going forward.

By Jackie Salo, NY Post

April 29, 2020 | 3:24pm

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  #1717  
Old 26 March 2020, 12:18
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Originally Posted by chokeu2 View Post
This may be beating a dead horse, but has anything happened that truly contradicts the Carnival Cruise ship? That did show that about 80% of the population on the ship was immune, and less than 1% were affected on the ship, and less died. Is that information no longer relevant?
Diamond Princess.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/...ess-mysteries/

You would need to find data on the number of contacts a lab confirmed case had, that *Weren't* infected - I don't think that's even being tallied. Non-infected and asymptomatic wouldn't present themselves for cross-checking either. That ship was perfect, because they were all accounted for, and no one could leave, and they were hammered by it non-stop for the entire period. As it stood, the R0 on board was 1.78. Canadian Researchers came up with an R0 of 1.5 during 2017/2018s Influenza season.
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WHO lauds lockdown-ignoring Sweden as a ‘model’ for countries going forward.

By Jackie Salo, NY Post

April 29, 2020 | 3:24pm

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  #1718  
Old 26 March 2020, 12:23
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Originally Posted by Polypro View Post
I'm seeing totally the opposite, got a link?
Sorry about that, Poly, I mistyped. I meant to type men.
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  #1719  
Old 26 March 2020, 12:42
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This is a fascinating visual representation of people congregating and then going back to their hometowns. You can apply that to Mardi Gras and people from NYC getting out. Not sure how they got the mobile data but still awesome to look at.

https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/stat...28347034767361
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  #1720  
Old 26 March 2020, 12:58
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Dominoes starting to fall in the UK

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epide...-revises-model

Quote:
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
Quote:
“He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,”
Quote:
“Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US — I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.
BwaHahahahahaha!
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WHO lauds lockdown-ignoring Sweden as a ‘model’ for countries going forward.

By Jackie Salo, NY Post

April 29, 2020 | 3:24pm

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Last edited by Polypro; 26 March 2020 at 13:17.
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